Transcript of 1006: Players to Avoid

This is the Late Round Podcast with your host JJ Zachar. JJ Zachar. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachary and in this episode 1006 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with best baseball on DraftKings where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers a can't miss offer. Draft one, get one. Enter a lineup in the $15 million baseball contest for just $20 and you'll score another best ticket to play free for a share of that 15 million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once. No weekly management required. And let your top scorers automatically start each week. Across the whole season, every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count toward your quest for a share of $15 million. 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You guys listened last week to Rich Reebar and myself talk about players to target in fantasy drafts this year. So today, the opposite is happening. It's players to avoid. This one's a little bit more difficult to do each year because it gets more of a reaction out of people. When you say negative things about a player or a situation, if one of you guys listening to this likes that player, then naturally you're going to want to defend your take. With that being said, it's important to remember that these takes are all based on cost. We're not avoiding these players no matter what. We're avoiding them based on where they typically go in fantasy drafts. Now, I keep saying we because this episode has another guest. To help me out, I brought on my good friend Evan Silva from Establish the Run. He came prepared with five players that he's generally avoiding this year and I've got five of my own, too. We didn't fully agree on everything, but there's some good back and forth, and I think you're going to enjoy it. Okay, I won't bore you anymore. Here's my conversation on players to avoid with the great Evan Silva. All right, Evan, I talked to Reeves last week with some players to target. Today, we're going to do some players to avoid. always always the harder one to do I feel like because people will take it more personally whenever we uh talk down on a player that they like. But again, I I introed with this, but this is all versus cost. We're not, you know, avoiding these guys no matter what, but it's all versus where they're generally being drafted. We'll go back and forth. We each have five guys. Uh you know, add commentary at the end, the other person can and we can have a little back and forth. But you kick things off with your first player to avoid. Yeah. And actually, every year I I write a shy away 30 list of 30 players to avoid in drafts, and you had me pick out five. So, this was like perfect timing because I'm in the midst of writing that right now. Perfect. Um, I'm starting with Tyreek Hill. And if you think about it, there just hasn't been a single bit of positive news about Tyreek Hill since the end of the 2023 season. Okay, he's almost he's 31 years old. He averaged a career-low 1.7 yards per route run last year. He almost got arrested outside of the Dolphin Stadium before a game last season. He has clashed publicly with his head coach and with his quarterback with Tua repeatedly. He's acted like a crazy person on social media. So, I I definitely think that Tyreek Hill can still run very fast in a straight line. I think that he will be able to run very fast in a straight line until he's 50. You remember Daryl Green used to win the uh the the NFL's fastest man contest when he was like 42 at the end of his career. Tyreek Hill, I mean, fast guys stay fast. Yeah. But I have no idea where his head is at and I think that he may not be a member of the Dolphins by the end of of the the 2025 season. Do you think that wrist from last year played a role at all or do you I I've had a hard time with the wrist injury because getting open and seeing getting targets you would have to think that Tua in his brain or whoever's playing quarterback in their mind they're sitting there and they're saying oh I'm not going to target this guy because he has a wrist injury which seems like a lot for the quarterback to process in that quick of a time frame right but at the same time last year Tyreek had 22 had a target on 22% of his routes run, which was the worst that he's seen since the second year of his career. And so, this isn't just a like he wasn't able to bring in the ball situation last year. This is also a he just wasn't targeted at nearly as high of a rate last year. Like, is that playing a role here? Like, is it It's because he wasn't getting because he wasn't getting open as much. Right. Right. Um, if you look at Matt Harmon's reception perception, I mean, it shows that Tyreek Hill is a player in clear decline, and we usually do not see players bounce back, especially at a a at at an age like Tyreek Hills, bounce back after they show a steep decline. So, I I think he's just losing athleticism. Again, he can still run very fast in a straight line, but I think he's losing athleticism. That's what happens to players when they get to that age. Yeah. Where do you have him rank if you don't mind me asking? Like are you at the point where you're like three or four wide receiver spots below market or is this just like I'm only taking him if he falls to the fifth round and that that's the only spot that I'm going to get him. So I have Tyreek Hill as basically a middle to late third round pick and I don't even think that I personally would take him there. I mean there are just there are receivers that I like better in that same range. Mike Evans. Um I I would take the the chance on the youth of Marvin Harrison Jr. Um you know, George Pickkins. I mean, I'm taking younger players in that range. Mike Evans isn't younger, but Mike Evans is coming off a careerhigh yards per route run, so he's still playing at a very high level. Tyreek Hill is not. And I have uh Jaylen Wadd significantly ahead of his ADP. And I've been getting a lot of Jaylen Wadd. I think that this is a year to bet on Jaylen Wadd, bet against Tyreek Hill. Yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot that there's a lot of volatility in that offense in general. Arguably the worst offensive line in the league still, like at least bottom five in the league. And and obviously that played a huge role in them throwing those outlet passes to Janu and and Devon Achan last year, which is why, you know, in my opinion, like Achan is still the easiest bet in that offense just because uh even if they improve the line and they're able to run better, that's going to benefit Achan. And then if they don't, then that's still going to benefit Han because they'll want some of those looks that with Han, I think he could catch a hundred balls, right? Right. Right. Exactly. Exactly. And so, um, yeah, I'm I'm with you with with Tyreek at the very least being a pretty volatile like an not pretty, an insanely volatile pick, you know, someone who's just could could easily tank at the uh at the end of the season. Uh, I'm going to go to the quarterback position here and call out Baker Mayfield. Um, I could go with like a Jared Goff type, but it's not as edgy as going with Baker because I think that people look at Baker Mayfield and the proargument for Baker is usually something, you know, it's pretty straightforward, something like the following great 2024 season, probably as a as a real life quarterback, probably underrated still just as a player, right? um they get acha Ibuka and you sit there and you say what could possibly go wrong when you have this wide receiver room uh and and and these weapons around you coming off the season that he did and honestly I think that the the the the answer to that is just straight math. Like people might hate it but this is a game about numbers and we have to lean into that at least to some degree. Obviously, we want to analyze this from a football perspective, but the numbers matter a whole lot in fantasy football. Baker Mayfield last year scored 21 and a half standard fantasy points per game. His previous high was 17.2. So, last year was most definitely an outlier season for him. Now, can he maintain that? I think that he's better than 17.2 points per game, but I don't know if he's at that 21.5 point per game level. Um, part of what drove that number last year was there's two things. One was a touchdown rate that I'll get to in a second, but the other one was he had 3.3 rushing points per game, which was almost double his highest season prior to last season. Um, usually, you know, uh, he's in that like one to two point per game range. Uh, you know, with his rushing, but last year, uh, that that improved greatly. He finishes a QB4 as a result. His previous high was QB17. But let's just say that he is better. Um, and that we're we're we're finally comfortable with Baker as a player. Going back to the touchdown rate thing, he had a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, which is just touchdowns divided by attempts. Since 2011, 15 quarterbacks who had next season data have been between 6.7% and 7.7% in touchdown rates. That's within plus or minus.5% of where Baker was last year. Of those 15 quarterbacks, their average points per game in that season where they had the high touchdown rate was 21.4. The next season it was 17.2. and every single quarterback lost in points per game year-over-year. Now, the Buccaneers, they should be good offensively, but I think a lot of times when we see these situations and we're like, "This team's going to be good." We don't look at how good they were the previous season. The Buccaneers scored 57 touchdowns last year. That's not an easy number to just repeat year-over-year. Chris Godwin is still banged up right now. Tristan Warfs is banged up, which could be a really big deal with the offensive line. um getting to 57 touchdowns just will not be some easy thing for them to they can do it for sure, but it's not an easy thing for them to accomplish. Um and then last year the Buccaneers sell 72% of their touchdowns. This plays into the touchdown rate thing. 72% of their touchdowns came via the air last year, which is a a pretty high number and not something that's very easily repeatable. Liam Cohen's gone. That's another thing that we have to factor in here. Um you know, I don't know if Baker can repeat those rushing numbers. I actually would bet the under on him, you know, uh, getting to 3.3 rushing points per game. Once again, the touchdown rate should regress. So, to me, like when you look at the quarterback landscape, we have the elite guys, right? We have the the the Jaden Daniels, uh, Jaylen Herz, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson's. Um, and maybe some people want to even throw a Joe Burrow in there, but to me, I would much rather just be waiting on a Drake May, who we know is going to give us the rushing upside, who we know could have that like that that huge huge spike this year, than taking that middle round pick on on Baker Mayfield. I'm also lower than consensus on Baker Mayfield. I have him quarterback 13. I believe his ADP is around quarterback nine. Yeah. Even sooner in some. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And it's for all the factors that and you didn't even mention that Mike Evans is 32. Chris Godwin will be 29 and a half when the season starts and isn't going to be ready when the season starts. And with the the Tristan Worse thing is terrifying. Yeah. You know, and I I He is expected back at some point, but will he be the same Tristan Worfs when he returns? Also, this is not a situation like where the Chargers, they can just plug in Joe Alt, a two-time first team all-American left tackle, you know, removed, you know, two years from playing at Notre Dame and the number five overall pick. They can just plug him in at left tackle and use a guy at right tackle who's at least made starts in the NFL and Trey Pipkins. Yeah. The Bucks have to turn to Charlie Hec at left tackle. You know, this is a huge huge downgrade. And if you look at the history like the on-off splits of like Trent Williams with the 49ers or Lane Johnson with the Eagles or Tyron Smith um you know back when he played for Dallas like this is a really really big deal and a huge concern for the entire offense. Yeah, totally totally agree. Um let's hear your next one. Bree Hall. And I know that this is a guy that you actually may be a little fond of, but I am not. Let's hear it. Let's hear it. Hear me out. Yeah. So, arguably Bree Hall's greatest strength as an NFL running back is his passcatching acumen and his long run ability with the ball in his hands. He ran 439 at 5'11, 217. Coming out of Iowa State, he averaged almost four catches per game over his first three NFL seasons. But the Jets are going to be like the runheaviest team in the NFL. The pass attempts are going to be sparing for the Jets this year. We saw in their even in their first preseason game. I mean, this is not any kind of a great indicator, the first preseason game, but they ran the ball 39 times in their first preseason game. I This is a cultural thing that Aaron Glenn is installing. You remember when when Aaron Glenn was the defensive coordinator for the Lions? Every time that they'd play the Bears, Justin Fields would run all over the Lions. Um, and Justin Fields is a quarterback who, and I I love Justin Fields in fantasy this year. Sure. But he's a quarterback who on third down, he is either going to uh throw the ball to his first read or he's going to take off and run or he's going to take a sack. Yeah. And that does not lend itself to running back receptions. And now we got the, you know, the the Brilin Allen stuff. I mean, Brilen Allen is coming and he's coming hard. Um, and Isaiah Davis also looks to at least have a minor role. So, this is a three running backfield with a running quarterback. And I don't know. I I actually think that your best outcome for for Bree Hall might be to see him like get traded to Dallas. I think that with the Jets, he's going to be a time share back who doesn't catch passes and probably doesn't score touch many touchdowns either. Yeah. Now, look, so when I published the the draft guide originally on July 1st, I thought which technically a lot of the players to target were written up in June because I had to get it out on July 1st. I liked Bree uh at that moment. Now, I've since amended that to talk about the Brilin Allen stuff and the coach speak surrounding that because there's a lot of there's a lot of it's scary, right? The way that they're talking about that backfield and how it's going to be split. Here's the here's the proargument for Bree and I want to get your reaction to this. This is semi-devil's advocate, but also semi like I do believe in this too to to a to a decent degree. Um, if you look at their, you know, obviously like when you're projecting target share, you have 100% target share on a team, right? And if you look at the Jets right now, it's Garrett Wilson and the worst supporting cast that I've honestly ever seen in my life outside of that player. Right. Josh Reynolds running as their is it gonna is it going to be like Tyler Johnson as their like That's wild seeing Tyler Johnson in in a starting lineup on Hours. Right. Right. Exactly. A dude a dude who's played on like 15 teams in the last two years. Even Mason Taylor who is running away with a tight end job has a high ankle sprain. Exactly. And so, uh, if you look at Bree the last two years on a per game basis, 16.9% target share per game, 13.7% target share per game. I think he's very capable based on this personnel. This is strictly target share without layering on top what you're noting, which is the, you know, the the low passing volume that they're going to see. This is strictly target share. I think that just based on what he's done the last two years and based on the personnel they have, we should feel pretty good about like a 15% target share for Bree Hall. Like realistically, I think Bree Hall will finish as the if he's on the Jets this year, will finish as the number two target getter on that team because there's just no one that is locked into especially with the Mason Taylor stuff that's been going on. So, let's say just hypothetically speaking that he sees 50% of the running back rushes. And maybe that's high because of what we've talked about with Brilan Allen and even Isaiah Davis, but 50% is at least a fairish number for running back rushes. Um, and and so, uh, and just so that he's not just when I filter this that he's we're not just filtering receiving backs, let's say a 15% target share base and a 50% running back rush share base. So, we'll get like the Chris Thompson players out of here, right? The guys who are only pass catchers. Get this. Since 2011, there's been 43 running backs who have played eight or more games that have gotten a 15% target share better and a 50% running back rush share better. Okay? Of those 43 players, none of them finished worse than RB18 and PPR points per game, and only two of them finished outside the top 12. Now, I understand that some of those players on that list are studs, Chris McAffrey, you know, uh, Alvin Chimera, stud after stud who were able to get that kind of workload. We still do have, though, like Miles Gaskin and Raandre Stevenson, Andre Ellington, Fred Jackson, these players who played kind of just a mediocre rushing role with that plus receiving role. And even when you push that down to a 14% target share, you add almost 20 more running backs to the data set. And of those 61, only one of them finished outside the top 20. It was Austin Eckler a couple years ago when he was the RB21. And that was the the downturn of his career, which is not the side of the career that Bree Hall is on right now, right? And and uh only five of the 61 were outside the top 12. So my bottom line with Bree is if we do feel okay about the share side of things, like the target share, the backfield share side of things without factoring in the passing volume in the offense, which totally understand, that's the that's the crux of the argument here, but if you only look at the share, uh, he looks pretty favorable, right? And then I think that the passing volume side, the one area where I feel a little bit more bullish and excited, excited is too strong of a word, would be they're not supposed to be very good this year. And if they're in these negative game scripts that could really benefit Bree more where I think this Bree Hall thing might come down to, and I really want to hear your take on this is honestly Isaiah Davis because Davis was a really good P. I love Davis. I like both Brilan Allen and Davis coming out last year, but Isaiah Davis I thought was a really underrated player who could play a three down role. And if you look at what he did down the stretch last year, I mean, it's a small sample, but he was by far the most efficient running back on that team last year. Um, and Brilin Allen, I'm going to give a pass because he was 20 years old, so it's, you know, he's he's got some time to get a little bit better in the league. But to me, I look at a team like, I don't know, Buffalo, where they do use that three-headed monster, and they do have that very specific role that they used last year with like a Tai Johnson. And even if Isaiah Davis plays like that kind of role on this team, that to me is what could really cap and ruin Bree Hall this year. You know, like the early like I don't think Brilen Allen's going to be more than a 5% target share guy, you I think he's going to be more of like the Bru I mean he might end up with more volume on the ground than Bruce Hall this year. There's a realistic chance that that happens and that would obviously hurt Hall too, but I think that the the main point with Hall and like obviously the selling point is the receiving. And who's going to hurt him more there? It might be Isaiah Davis at the end. Do you agree with that? Yeah, I mean there's kind of words to live by for me are like we can deal sometimes with um backfields that have two members and um you know like a two-way rotation and either the offense is awesome to support them or they just run the or they just you know feature the running backs and they they end up both getting a bunch of touches. It's really hard to support threeman backfields like virtually impossible. So there's no question that Isa Is Isaiah Davis playing a role. I mean, but you know, and he's looking good. Like if if I were you, I would be rooting for Bruce Hall to get traded. Yeah. No, I mean, I think that's probably the best outcome for him. Um I just I I'm so like stuck on how bad the personnel is on this team at at the skill positions, right? and how Bree like we know that he's ar like your like your argument for Bree more than I would assume is not even necessarily anti-Bree the talent right like it's it has very little to do with that versus the the situation that he's in which we both agree the offensive line's actually not bad but we both I think it could be awesome yeah right right but the but Justin Fields and you know Tyler Johnson and Josh Reynolds and a banged up rookie tight end like that's that's rough that's that's pretty bad we can't expect a lot of of scores from that. But I do I I think that where I land is that he's probably in some home leagues going to be overdrafted because running backs will get a little bit inflated in that kind of environment. And I would much rather take a lot of wide receivers. But I think within the position once you get to where he gets drafted, if you're only looking at running backs, like strictly look like just looking at running back rankings, I think he's a like are you are you are you confidently taking Kairen Williams over him? Absolutely. Okay. So, Kairen, you're take James Cook with the situation that's going on with him. Okay. Um, let's see. I'm trying to think of other Chuba Hubard versus Breece. Now, we're kind of talking. Okay. Okay. Yeah. I'm just trying trying to trying to get a feel for I think I would still take Chuba. Okay. All right. But that's about that's about So you're like more like that's the range starting the lower end tight end or RB2s like mid mid to lower end as opposed to him being a higher end RB2. Yeah. I mean I think I think that's fair. Um and and folks can listen to both sides and definitely be a little bit nervous about drafting him. I mean I've moved him down my rankings with some of the coach speak stuff and the way that Brilen Allen um is seemingly going to see some of that early down work. I I think Brilin Allen in particular has been a pretty easy click in baseball. I think I think a guy the archetype of player that Allen is is a much more difficult player to start in your manage league because it's just going to be is he going to score this week or you know what kind of what kind of game script are they going to see? But in a baseball environment, you know, it's a little bit easier to to click that name. Let's move on. You know what? I'm just going to go to Chuba Hubard since we just talked about him. This is probably honestly this is probably my most controversial take of the season is my is my Chuba stance. Um so last year so this is the next player on my list is Chuba Hubard. Uh last year Hubard saw an 83% running back rusher per game. Um that that is not an easy number to replicate. That's like Kairen Williamsesque, right? Which we all are a little bit afraid of Kairen, you know, even if he sees a dip of like 10 like that's the downside of Kiran Williams, right? if he sees like a dip of 10% in in running back rush air, then all of a sudden, you know, if he if he maintains the efficiency that he's had, that's not great. And so, it's not an easy number to to maintain. Um, part of the reason that he was able to see the workload, in my opinion, that that he saw last year, Hubard, is Jonathan Brooks. Jonathan Brooks was out um when when Brooks played, if you remember, he played those three games, basically two games because that third game he tore his ACL again in that second game. So you get the first game, he comes back, they're going to ease him in. That second game, they probably feel a little bit better about where he's at. And in that second game, Chuba after his, again, Chuba's seasonl long running back rush air was 83%. In that game, he saw twothirds of the team's running back rushes. So it was significantly lower than what he had had uh you know throughout the entire season. And more importantly, and this is really the crux of the argument for not drafting Chuba at cost, uh Jonathan Brooks saw three targets to Chuba zero in that game. And we know that pass catching really matters, especially for these like middle uh you know, early to middle round running backs. That's the way that they sort of differentiate themselves and stand out and become league winners in fantasy football. And one way to predict next season target share. I did an episode on this earlier the offseason is by looking at previous season yards per route run. It's it's a predictive metric at not just wide receiver but at running back as well especially at the extremes. And Chuba at the was at the extreme last year in a bad way. He had a 0.51 yards per run rate which is one of the worst that you're going to find at the running back position. He's now had backtoback seasons of pretty bad yards per run rates. And then when you see data like that, you have to ask yourself like for instance, like David Montgomery had a really good yardage per run rate last year. But we know intuitively by just understanding football at a very high level, uh that that David Montgomery is not going to walk into a 13% target share this year just because he had a high yardage per run rate last year because Jir Gibbs is in the back field, right? And so when you look at what the Panthers did through their actions this off seasonason, they add Tedoa McMillan. So that's that's target share that can go to a true alpha hypothetically in that offense. And then look at what they did at running back. They add Rico Dowel who's good in pass pro who can catch passes out of the back field. And then they drafted Trevor ETN who is known as a passcatching running back. In my opinion, Chuba Hubard is a great early down back who's going to carry a pretty big workload in this offense behind a good offensive line too, right? So like I don't think Hubard is going to totally tank your team per per se, especially across the first month of the season. They have a pretty easy schedule. So I I don't think that Chuba is like in a void from the standpoint of Zamir White last year, right? This is not a situation like that in my opinion, but I want my RB 15 to 18 that I'm drafting to be able to have a true in my opinion like top six type ceiling. You know, like if you're looking at Kenneth Walker versus Chuba Hubard, I'm taking Kenneth Walker all day because I know that Walker, despite the injury, obviously there's some risk with the injury stuff, but we can see that upside in that Kubiaak offense and and him getting more passcatching work last year and there's excitement around that fit with Hubard. I just worry that there's not going to be a pass catching role for him. And if there's not a pass catching role, you're drafting the RB1 17 to be the RB 16 or the RB 15. and that just doesn't do it for me. And I think the biggest argument is that I'm only a couple spots away in running back rank with Chuba, to be honest, like lower than than the market. It's the wide receivers that you're drafting around that range. Like you get that like round four, round five wide receiver range. There's so many good players, Jameson Williams and George Pickkins, and there's just so many good wide outs there that I'd rather go in that direction. So, I think we're going to see a drop in target share for Chuba from that 12 to 13% range he was at last year to more of like the 7 to 8% range. And that's pretty significant when you're trying to calculate ceiling for these guys. There are a few things to like about Chuba Hubard. Just not very many things to get excited. The ship chasers use a term small hit, big miss. Yeah. And those are the kind of players that you generally want to avoid when that's their range of outcomes. a small hit but could be a big miss. And Chuba Hubard I think kind of falls into that category. He has shown the ability to handle big workloads. I mean yeah last two years he had 238 carries in 2023 250 carries last year in college. He handled big workloads. That's a good thing. Um they gave him money. They gave him extension. Um and you know they poured a ton of resource into their offensive line. their offensive line is kind of beastly. It should be great. Yeah. Um and I think that the the signs point to this being an ascending offense. So, there are some things to like about Chuba Hubard. I draft him every once in a while. Yeah. You know, but he I definitely never get excited about him because he's still at the end of the day a small hit, big miss kind of player. Yeah. Like on DraftKings for instance, you know, he's like an early fifth oftent times. I'll get him in the late fifth at times, but like that's enough for me to call him out and just talk. This the the Chuba thing to me is more about the logic behind it and the kind of way that I think people should be thinking about fantasy football with like you said getting the actual big hit out of it instead of it being a little hit, big miss. You know, trying to get like the true ceiling out of that player. You can't just hit singles with all your players throughout your draft. You're not going to win your fantasy championship that way. All right, next one for you, Evan. Let's hear it. So Patrick Mahomes has been a losing fantasy pick in each of the last two years. Not just, oh, you know, a good real life quarterback, you know, who's been average, you know, no, no, no. He's been a losing fantasy pick in each of the last two years. Um, he finished below 30 touchdown passes and below 400 rushing yards in both seasons. In 2023, he had a second round ADP and he had a third round ADP last year. his ADP this year is down to round five and it's still way too high. Yeah. Rasheed Rice, who is their, you know, their differencem number one receiver, is almost certainly going to miss the first month of the season, maybe the first month and a half. Hollywood Brown, I mean, the guy's just made a glass. I mean, he he can't stay healthy. He's hurt again. Um, you know, and Travis Kelce is, you know, just a pure possession catch and fall guy at this stage of his career. Um, you know, it's just it's not happening. This is going to be a team again for the third straight year that is built on its defense and struggles to hit explosive plays at least until Rasheed Rice comes back. Rasheed Rice could make a difference. Yeah. But by then, I mean, we're a month into the season, month and a half, month and a half into the season, and Patrick Mahomes has probably not been even usable in fantasy. So, um, you know, again, I I think that his his ADP should absolutely be lower than round five. And I I think that we, you know, for the past couple years, people have been chasing those 40 touchdown pass seasons from Patrick Mahomes. Like, that just is not gonna happen again. Yeah. And they also to your point with Rasheed Rice being banged up or not banged being suspended potentially to start the season. I mean technically he's probably a little banged up still but uh they open up their season against the Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Ravens. I mean that's not the easiest start in the that's a that's a tough start uh for any quarterback in any offense. And yeah, I mean I think in situations like this and I feel this way about like Marvin Harrison Jr. where I you know obviously the talent can be there but I ask myself what's changed year-over-year you know what what is what is like tangibly changed usually like a coaching change would make me feel more bullish on somebody who maybe is coming off a down season or multiple down seasons this really all aligns the Mahomes stuff aligns when Matt Naggie got there or went back there as offensive coordinator and the last two seasons Mahomes has had sub sevenyard a dots uh he's not giving giving us three points per game with his legs. He hasn't he's only done that once during his career. Um I I think that we just got to a point where Mahomes like showed us his statistical ceiling so early in his career and there's probably somewhat of an anchoring bias going on here. Also, did you notice he's kind of starting to to develop a little bit of a belly? I've seen that. Yes, he's got dad Look, we we don't we don't talk down on dad bods here, man. We we we love dad bods with late round fantasy football. Um, but yeah, I I agree. Like again, it kind of falls into like that Baker category for me where obviously you can see a good passing season coming, but that's not the kind of season that you want to bet on in fantasy football generally. You know, when you're not giving us the rushing production and you're in a single quarterback format, you should just be waiting on not not only that, but like even the pocket passers late, none of us should be shocked if like Jordan Love outscores Patrick Mahomes this year, you know, like or even a Justin Herbert, whomever. Like there's a lot of more pocket passers that have comparable rushing ceilings, if not better rushing ceilings than Mahomes because there are, you know, they're talking about Jordan Love maybe running a little bit more this year. Justin Herbert has always had that and he even did a little bit last year. So like why are we placing that bet on Mahomes when we know the passing stuff is so volatile to begin with? So I love that call out. Although I did draft him in the uh in the Kings Classic this past weekend in Canton because he fell and I was trying to trying to uh get a little exposure to him because I know I'm not going to get him anywhere else. All right, I'm gonna go to a pretty in my opinion a pretty easy one. I'm going to go to Brian Robinson. Uh I think that the argument that I at least the argument I've seen that's pro- Robinson is essentially what if he scores 15 touchdowns this year? like what if he's this year's Jamal Williams or this year's Legaret Blunt or this year's insert early down Bruiser and Grinder who ends up scoring a lot of touchdowns in a good offense and I understand that. Uh but I'm just not going to bet on something like that. It's just not my style. Um you know, Robinson has seen 3% 7% and 5% target shares in his three seasons in the league. His best running back rush share on a per game basis has been 68%. So, if you just look at those top numbers, 7% target share, 68% running back rush share, we've had just five top 15 running back performances since 2011 from running backs who have hit those marks or lower. Um, and and two of those five are Nick Chub, who that's prime Nick Chub, right? One of the one of the best early down running backs that are, you know, this era has basically seen. I don't want to say that Brian Robinson is that. And this Jakori Kroski merit stuff I don't think is just just nothing, you know, like he at the very least like JCM didn't have or I'll just say Bill didn't have uh you know insane uh collegiate production. So like the the Zap model didn't really love him that much, but he didn't test the combine. So we didn't get like comparable athleticism numbers for him. But seemingly I think we would all project if you just watch him uh he is easily the most athletic running back on that team right now when you when you compare him to Brian Robinson and then the aged uh Austin Eckler. I actually think though that that Krosky Merritt is a bigger threat to Brian Robinson than he is to Austin Eckler. Eckler playing more of that uh satellite back role officially like he's not going to see that much work on the ground. Uh and he was actually really efficient per route run last year. Eckler was he was fine as a receiver and and JCM as a rookie they likely aren't going to trust him in that role immediately or even maybe even during the season to see like a legit 9 10% target share. I think he's going to be more change of pace on the ground and it's not going to be that difficult to replace a player who's maybe just an above average you know type starter in the league. And so with Robinson, again, it just goes back to like you look at at Fantasy Pros ADP right now. He's going ahead of Brian Robinson's going ahead of Stefon Diggs which might be not people aren't reacting that yet or you know the ADP sources aren't reacting to him being healthy yet but ahead of Stefon Diggs Jacobe Meyers Matthew Golden Ricky Pearl like again there's so many like that top 40 wide receivers have so many good wide outs that I am not going to take an early down back uh you know for for a team that that has an ascending young player and rookie player over some of those wide outs that could really be difference makers in fantasy football this year. You know, Mike Leone and I get into arguments about Ricky Pierol like every day at this point. He Oh, yeah. Leone Leon is anti-Pol, isn't he? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I'm I'm I'm all about Richard Pearl, man. Are you Oh, he's going to hate that cuz he loves He loves you. He's always like, "Well, JJ said this, JJ said that." I'm going to bring that up to him. I know. like the the the year one stuff into year two modeling stuff is not going to love Pierce all that much, but it's really hard for me to get away from I liked him as a prospect. Um, and obviously he got shot last year and that's not going to be an easy thing to to just overcome even if even if the valleys for him last season were, you know, a little bit into him his return, right? It was in that like weak like 11 to 13 range or something like that whenever he like didn't see or only saw one target on all of his routes run, didn't have a single yard. Yeah, I mean Persaw, he's actually, this is a spoiler for a couple weeks for when we go over my exposure on DraftKings on becoming a basketball bro. Ricky Paw right now, as I'm saying this, is my highest rostered and highest exposed draftings. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, I love to hear that. Yeah, he's like top he's like one of my top five. Don't tell Leone. But anyways, back to that was a huge tangent. That's why I moved from Brian Robinson to Ricky Pierce. to Jaka Kroski Merritt because this is a big deal for Brian Robinson because he is a very volume dependent. Yes. Player. Yeah. And Jakori Krosky Merritt I think is a much bigger threat to Brian Robinson than he is to Austin Eckler. You mentioned that Jakori Krosky Merritt did not participate at the combine. He did have a proday and oh my god. Yeah. 445 at 206 pounds 41 12 inch vertical 10 foot4 broad jump. I mean, this guy is an absolute athlete. I know he bounced around colleges and he didn't really play much in college, but he only had seven career receptions. So, I think that he is an early down guy. Exactly. Yep. And and that's a big concern for Brian Robinson. 100%. 100%. And and honestly, like it's weird because the market has reacted more to Austin Eckler getting bumped down. Like Eckler gets drafted way and I'm not saying that Eckler's like this obvious target or anything like that, right? But but Eckler's been bumped down and Robinson hasn't been bumped down as much. Like like especially where they get drafted, right? Being bumped down in round 15 to 16 is is nothing or this is not that big of a deal. But like the fact that Robinson's ADP hasn't shifted near I just don't think it's shifted nearly as as much as it should based on what we just talked about and and Bill being a a bigger threat to to BR Robb's workload. Bill's a great nickname by the way. I don't even get it. But I I know that that that he does call himself that though. He does call and it's a lot easier than saying JaKory Kroski Merritt on a podcast. Yeah. All right, let's hear your next one. Evan Evan Ingram. So, we had an emailer email in um maybe a week ago. Does Silva is is this a mistake? Silva doesn't have Evan Ingram in his top 150. And what I what I really try to do is have I have like 15 quarterbacks and 15 tight ends and the rest is running backs and and wide receivers. And Evan Ingram just happens to be like tight end 17, so he's not going to be in the top 150 at at like on principle, but um I mean I have him like tight end 17 or maybe even tight end 18. Um because I'm just not intrigued by him at all in Denver. You want to talk about volume dependency. Evan Ingram is the most volume dependent tight end in the league. He's averaged fewer than nine yards per reception in three of the last four years. He's a catch and fall guy. Um he hasn't gone over four touchdowns in individual seasons since 2017. He doesn't block, so he's only going to be a rotational player on a defenseoriented Broncos team. And he's going to split time with Adam Troutman. Shawn Peyton loves Adam Troutman. In their preseason opener, they were sharing time. Adam Troutman blocks. Um, so I just I don't think that Evan Ingram is helping anyone in fantasy football this year. When you get into the, you know, the tight end twos, you're really touchdown hunting. And Evan Ingram has never been a big-time touchdown scorer. And I don't think he's going to score a lot of touchdowns this year either as a rotational player on a defenseoriented Broncos team. Yeah. I mean, look, the the favorable argument for Ingram, I think, is, you know, historically breakout tight ends, guys who outpace their ADP. Obviously, breakout's not the right word for a guy who's a little bit older, but uh, you know, these breakout tight ends will come from teams that don't have locked in multiple wide receivers locked in like with high ADPs. You only have Courtland Sutton there. So, hypothetically, you know, this is why Tucker Craft is really attractive because there there's this opening Tucker Craft. Yeah. there's this opening there for someone to step up and step in and be uh the number one I mean for for that team the number one target getter on that team right uh with with Ingram we're we're saying what if he could be the number two but as time has gone on I've gotten less and less bullish on Ingram when thinking about how this team may operate this year you mentioned their defense and they they have a great defense an elite defense and elite offensive line and that usually is not the best combination for uh you know a a a high volume passing approach, right? Um, and the other thing too is that if you look at how they've they've seemed to deploy slash want to deploy RJ Harvey, if you want to use the Joker argument, and this is what I was using the Joker argument a little bit in July for for Evan Ingram, and I've kind of been like, like I said, like lowering him in my rankings, not feeling as good about him. R.J. Harvey might end up just being that dude for them and he might be the mismatch dude for them in in 2025 because that Joker role that, you know, I think is a little bit overblown in general in the way that that they talk about it. But that Joker role has been Sprouls, has been Chimera, has been backs just as much as it's been Jimmy Graham. And so I don't think that it's a lock that that Ingram is playing that spot despite when he when he signed or when he went there uh he tweeted a Joker gif uh to to the world where well Shawn Peyton was asked before training camp whether he saw Evan Ingram as the Joker and Shawn Peyton was like yeah can maybe do some of those things. I think maybe yeah may maybe they had the idea pre-draft you know and then they got their dude and after doing a vows and stuff and they like because I I like I I think that the the arrow to me is pointing up for both the backs in that back in that back field like I love both Dobbins and RJ Harvey. I think both of them can hypothetically eat and and pay off at cost but yeah the the uh the arrows just been pointing down for me with Ingram. Part of this too has been his cost seems to be at least stagnant and slash rising based on the fact that a lot of analysts are in and I was into it like I said like this is a player that I've been changing my mind on quite dramatically. Um so I'm glad that you you shouted him out on the show today. Staying on the R.J. Harvey topic. Did you see that? So RJ RJ Harvey Harvey is like a like a big buzz guy in fantasy right now because when the Broncos came out with their depth chart, he was like sixth on the depth chart and then so you know the JK Dobbins cheerleaders were taking their victory laps and then they come into the preseason game and RJ Harvey gets like all the first team reps. So then is a massive swing and all the RJ Harvey cheerleaders, they're taking their victory laps. Did you see this though? Is it the helmet thing? Ben Albbright, who covers the Broncos, um, was asked about this. Some Some guy goes, "RJ Harvey started on offense and then Ben Albbright tweeted, "Yeah, it was supposed to be JK Dobbins, though. He was supposed to start. I don't know what happened. He couldn't find his helmet or something." Oh my gosh. Yeah. So, maybe JK Dobbins was supposed to start, but he couldn't find his helmet. So RJ RG RJ Harvey, I don't know why I'm having such a problem saying his name. Um, he got all the first team reps. So on to preseason game two, I guess. That's that's hilarious. It's so like I both of those like literally both running backs were players to target for me in my initial launch of the guy. Like I, you know, like it's an offense that that's going to support that kind of of role. I mean, we know they've been, you know, Shawn Peyton teams have been top six in running back target share since 2011 every single year. So, um, yeah, I I do. And not only that, like that is going to likely take away from Ingram a little bit, too, which sucks because again, he's been more volume dependent than anything else. All right, you talk about Evan Ingram. I'm going to go to I should have probably segueed your Mahomes thing to this guy, but I'll go with the tight end. I'll talk Travis Kelce. Uh, look, we don't know what's going to happen exactly with the Rashid Rice stuff. What's your estimate? Like four to six games? Yeah. Yeah. So, we'll see. I mean, if this if if it comes out today after we uh you know, before we publish this episode, uh this is a Monday that we're recording this, but yeah, I mean, like four to six games seems seems to be where Rice will be suspended. Um and that means that Rice would hypothetically be playing a good 10 plus games for the Chiefs this year. Last year in the small sample with Rasheed Rice, Travis Kelce averaged five PPR points per game and a 14% target share with Rasheed Rice active last year. in the three games, which is horrific. And then, you know, you look at how he performed. He was a tight end six in PPR points per game last year on a 25% target share. He was still just a tight end six. His yards per out run, 1.43, the worst of his career. His yards after the catch per reception, the worst of his career. And so, I just don't know why the market seems to be assuming that what he did last year from a volume perspective is going to carry over. The only argument that I can make is maybe some touchdown regression, you know, like that's the that's the crux I think to the the the the uh the pro side for Travis Kelce. But even still, like I'm a fan of Jaylen Royals. I think that he's a good prospect. I think he was a good prospect and he's literally his top comp in the Zap model was Rasheed Rice. So, I think that he can fit in uh you know, in that role pretty nicely. Xavier Worthy is another year in and so he should command more of a target share in the offense. Hollywood Brown isn't at least out for the season right now. You know, he is banged up because he can't stay healthy. But, uh, and then I even think, you know, Noah Gray is a good backup tight end and and someone who could see more work in the offense. And then Isaiah Pacheco is healthy right now, too. I mean, there's just it's a healthier offense in general, uh, that I think could steal target share. So, if Travis Kelce ends up seeing a 20% target share instead of a 25% target share this year, and he maintains that per route run efficiency, that's a disaster in fantasy football. Like, that's a that's really bad news. Since 2014, we've had 46 tight ends play eight or more games in their in their current season while running 200 more routes in their N minus one season. So, the previous season, of those 46, there were 11 of them who were coming off seasons with a sub 1.5 yards per run rate. Okay, so we're looking at these tight ends who had bad yards per hour run rates the previous season um in this kind of range that that that Travis Kelce is going in. Uh of those 11, only three of them outperformed their ADP expectation and points per game. And uh those 11 performed on average almost two PPR points per game below expectation. So there's a lot of market trends that don't favor Travis Kelce. There's a lot of age trends that don't favor Travis Kelce. And there's a lot of efficiency trends that don't favor Travis Kelce. I know that people are gonna be are gonna buy into the he's in better shape this year narrative. When has that ever been something that has worked out for us as fantasy players? So, I'm I'm gonna mostly fade Kelsey this year. As someone who actively fell in love with Taylor Swift when I saw her at Soldier Field two years ago, I am here for all the Travis Kelce shade. So, yeah. Yeah. It's it's it's a it's a tough buy for me. All right. So, you got I think you have one more, right? One one more guy. And I mean, this is this is kind of a gimme, but it's Naji Harris. I just looked at his Fantasy Pros ADP and he was like still right around a top 100 player. And I like, please don't draft this guy. Yeah. Um, you know, obvious everybody knows by now he got into a um a fireworks accident uh in July and um he is not healthy yet. Uh he never had upside in the first place. I mean, this is going to be Omar and Hampton's uh back field. I talked to an opto optometrist. I'm not a doctor. Wow. I talked to an optometry. I'm I'm friends with an optometrist. And I asked him, "What is, you know, what's your level of concern about Naji Harrison?" He was like, "I think he's going to end up losing the eye." He's like, "Any eye injury that you suffer, it generally will be healed within 3 days." And it's been over a month now. I I obviously I hope that Niger Harris does not lose his his eye. Yeah. Um but like this optometrist and he's really good. He's he went to UT Austin. Really smart dude. And I mean I he's like I I think he's going to end up losing the eye. Like eye injuries heal fast and it's been over a month and Naji Harris's eye is is not healed. So let me because I was fading Naji before all of this happened. That's not a brag or anything like that. I'm not predicting him to get in a fireworks accident, right? But it was more so the like you said I I never saw the ceiling outcome like it was just not there when they drafted Amari and Hampton. Uh how high are you then on Amari and Hampton? Because because I have him 25th overall. So I mean I've been getting a ton of Omari and Hampton just every time I'm in the third round I'm looking for Omari and Hampton. Yeah. You can't underell the the fact that typically in these scenarios and we even saw it with like I don't know Bree Hall who we talked about earlier in his rookie season, right? where these guys who are clearly the best back in their backfield as rookies, they don't just get the workload immediately because if there is a veteran or if there is another player sitting there to get some of that work, uh those guys will get some of that work. But you can't underell the fact that Hampton now is doing this without competition. I mean, there's there's no one there really in his way. Whereas if if Naji Harris were to be healthy, we might see more of a second half breakout for Amari and Hampton as opposed to, you know, an early season breakout. But now the early season breakout is very much on the table. So I'm with you. I'm very high on Amari and Hampton as well. I'm going to go to the final player here. I'm going to talk about Jerry Judy. So Joe Flacco starting this season is only going to push Jerry Judy's ADP upwards. And it sounds like Flaco is is in the driver's seat to be uh you know the starter and that dude for them uh to start the season. But like I'll ask you this, Evan. What do you think the uh the overunder I I'll set the overunder for you. Flaco starts this year. Overunder. Eight and a half starts for Flacco. Oh, I think that that's right about where it should be. I I I would say between seven and nine. And I think nine would be a really good outcome for the cause of Judy and Injoku. Yeah. And so I'm sitting here and I'm looking at a guy like Judy where of course Flaco is the best option for that passing attack. I think we'd all agree. But the thing that I have a hard time with and this is the same thing that we see with Jameus Winston. He's good for fantasy football. Flaco is not some savior as a real football quarterback. And Jamus is not a s. So Jamus was struggling last year while while all these good crazy numbers were happening for the Browns. He was still struggling from a real football perspective. That matters because they can bench the player and then and the Browns have multiple options now that they're going to want to test out outside of Joe Flacco. And here's the thing. Last year there was a 7-week period where Jamus had where Judy had Jamus and he averaged 21.1 PPR points per game. He was on fire. He was a beast. He had almost a 25% target share during that stretch. But outside of that split, he averaged 9.3 PPR points per game and a 21% target share. And with Cedric Tilman from week 7 to 11, because they traded Amari Cooper and Cedric Tilman became uh the perimeter guy aside from outside of of Judy. Uh with Tilman from week 7 to week 11, uh Judy had a little over 14 PPR points per game and a target share per game of 19.6%. Which is like it's fine. It's not elite, but it's fine. But the problem was that with that is that that was still with Winston. And nothing has really changed for Jerry Judy. Judy didn't all of a sudden become some elite player at wide receiver where he's going to be able to sustain a 21 point per game average. His per route run numbers were pretty much the same throughout his entire career as what we saw last year. His targets per route run was actually below his career average last year. The reason he was so good in fantasy football, no human being in the NFL ran more routes than Jerry Judy last season. He ran more routes than every other player in football. They dropped back a lot. Cleveland had uh the highest uh targeted attempts in the entire league last season. I just don't see that continuing. I mean, that's that's regression waiting to happen. They go out, they draft Quinshan Judkins. Obviously, he's not been able to find the field because of the off the- field stuff, but they also drafted Dylan Samson. It's a team that has younger quarterbacks that, like I said, they're going to want to test out. And if they have these younger quarterbacks, they're likely going to try to be more runheavy than they were last year. And if you look at where he's being ranked, here are the wide receivers he's being ranked ahead of that that I would draft over Jerry Judy right now. Stefon Diggs, Jacobe Meyers, Roma Dunay, Ricky Piol. I would take all four of those wide receivers over Judy because we have to think maybe he gets off to a decent enough start because Joe Flacco is going to be starting for them. But the most important part of the fantasy season, there's like a greater than 90% chance that it's going to be like Shador Sanders or Dylan Gabriel or some other quarterback that we don't feel as confident can can lift and sustain the pass catchers in that offense. So, I think that he's a floor play, not a ceiling one. this. Honestly, I think that Judy is kind of even to a larger degree, but kind of in that like Chuba Hubard bucket where I I do think that it's a like you said, it's a it's a a big miss, small hit kind of situation where I have a hard time seeing Judy really finishing as like a top 24 wide receiver this year. Yeah, I think that the Browns are going to end up having four quarterbacks who make starts this year. Kenny Pick. I think the plan was for Kenny Picket actually to start week one before he pulled his hamstring, which got to be a pretty bad hamstring pull because he has been out for a while. Um, and then, uh, I was listening to Zack Jackson, who's covered the Browns for a long time. He covers them for the Athletic on a podcast recently, and he's like they are also intent on making sure that they get some starts out of Shadur Sanders and Dylan Gabriel. This was before Shadur Sanders had a pretty nice preseason opener. Yeah. Because they have to at least have some idea of what they have in these guys. Yes. Because you know that that's going to determine whether or not they use a very high pick or try to trade up for a quarterback next year. Yeah. Um so they I mean they they are like super motivated to figure out, you know, to start like multiple quarterbacks over the course of the season. This is going to be a carousel. Yeah. And why wouldn't they, right? Like I mean, and look, you you and someone might be asking why start Flaco at all. Well, you still want to get uh an understanding of of the rest of the team if it's, you know, if he's the most competent quarterback. You need to have the most competent quarterback at least start some games for you to have a good understanding of what the their pass catchers can do uh and you know, their their uh the rest of the team can do. But man, end of the season stuff, I mean, what what what kind of percent would you put on Joe Flacco not starting a non Flacaco quarterback starting week 15 to 17, the fantasy playoffs? Like we're talking greater than 90% here. Yeah. Yeah. I was going to say like 85%. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's it's a really high likelihood and and so just because of that even you could say, all right, maybe Judy hits ADP, matches ADP up until then. But I still don't even think that's the case just given his splits with and without Cedric Tilman. They draft Harold Fannon, uh, who could be an interesting, you know, because they run a lot of 12 personnel. They also have Deontay Johnson there now. Maybe he wins out the slot job. We'll see. But regardless, like it's not that clean of a situation and they're not going to throw nearly as much as they did last year. So to me, Judy, he's a fade for me. All right, Evan, this was great. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you guys are working on over at Establish the Run. Yeah, I'm working on that shy away article right now. 30 guys to avoid in fantasy drafts. Um, my top 150 is upgraded updated every single day. The tiers are updated every single day. We got a lot of podcasts. Establishtherun.com. Uh, establish the run on iTunes and YouTube. We're trying to get our YouTube numbers up. So, come subscribe. Yeah. And I will always back my my boys over at ETR. Um, there's a lot of of good synergy with like what I produce at Late Round Fantasy Football and then what what you guys do over at ETR. Um, so definitely check them out. If you guys haven't checked out the draft guide, the late round draft guide, go do that over on late round.com. Make sure you're subscribed to this podcast feed as well as our YouTube channel, YouTube.comroundfff. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in. [Music]