Transcript of Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts You Need to Know! | 2025 Fantasy Football Advice

Are the Bears back? Are the Jets done? We have sleepers breakouts and bus for you here on Fantasy Football Today presented by Bed MGM, the sports book born in Vegas. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard. That's Heath Cummings. A lot to cover on a busy Monday coming off a busy preseason weekend and a lot of fantasy drafts still coming up. So, let's get right to it. The Bears are the Bears. They back. Are they back? I mean, listen, we were panicked. It was Caleb Williams stinks and you know, maybe DeAndre Swift and maybe DJ Moore and maybe maybe Caleb Williams looked great against the Bills backups. He absolutely did. I'm not ranking him as a top 12 quarterback anymore. I actually moved DJ Moore down in my rankings. moved Roma Dunce up, but no, I wouldn't say they're back. They haven't been back in a really long time. I didn't really move Caleb Williams down, but I never had him in the top 12. So, I think that QB15 range is about the right spot. You should expect a secondyear quarterback in his first year in a new offense to maybe have some struggles early in the preseason and in training camp. And it looks like he's starting to work through some of that. I don't, like I said, Dave said, I don't think he's a top 12 quarterback, but he certainly has the upside to be a lot better than a top 12 quarterback. After watching that again, it was against Bill's backups. You were there. You saw joint practice. You went there last week. So So you got to see a little bit more of ones versus ones and and Caleb had his ups and downs as he's kind of had all he actually had way more ups than downs in the practice. Now he didn't take a lot of chances downfield. There were a couple times when he did and he connected. Uh I remember a deep post to Romans that Odun leaped up for. That was great. He had a great connection with Lovelin that was kind of like the one that we saw in the preseason game, but he didn't have any turnovers. He wasn't really that much offtarget. He just kept it kind of short. It's almost like his instructions that day, Jamie, were take what the defense gives you. And there's a lot of that in the National Football League. And when that happens, that leads to a high completion rate. You get a lot of yards as a result. Sometimes you get extra yards because receivers make plays after the catch. And we know Chicago has a lot of guys that can do that. They can make plays after the catch and those numbers do rack up. It was a good practice, I would say, for Caleb Williams. Why DJ Moore down? Why Roma Dun? because DJ Moore seems to be used more like he was late last season. And do you remember that his A dot was under six yards per per target or yards per average depth of target. I should know that stat by now. Um but and he had a lot of targets. I think that number comes down a little bit. And if he's just going to be this kind of short area safety valve for the Bears and Romo Dunes is going to be the downfield threat and we know that Caleb Williams can hit those downfield throws. We saw that in the game on Sunday. then yeah, I'm I'm not as excited about DJ Moore and I'm much more excited about Romo Dunce. I'm still gonna draft DJ Moore first, but he's more of like a round fiveish type pick, whereas Romo Dunay has crept into round seven for me. We're going to get into sleepers, breakouts, and bus later in the show, but let's give you a preview because DeAndre Swift, breakout running back for you. DeAndre Swift, bus running back for you. Let's have this argument right now. Oh, right. Right off the top. Well, DeAndre Swift's being drafted somewhere around RB20 in most leagues, in round five in most leagues. He's never finished worse than RB 24. His best season on a per game basis, RB15 with Ben Johnson, who he's been reunited with. In the season when Jamal Williams had 17 rushing touchdowns, they added nothing besides a seventh rounder and Kyle Manangai, the guy who was supposed to be the clear number two, Roshan Johnson, hasn't been healthy. And nobody in Chicago ever even mentions the guy. It's amazing how many press conferences they can have without talking about him. It's DeAndre Swift. He's the lead running back. He's going to be a top 20 running back and he might be a top 12 running back. So, I'm going to tell you the biggest problem that I saw at Bears practice on Friday. It was the offensive line and a lot of it was more because of what they were doing before the snap. Five false start penalties for the starting unit that pushes the ball back as everybody knows. There was a holding penalty that brought a play back. We know that they've got issues up front. I know they they added some great guys at guard center. This unit needs a lot of work and it's preseason. It's training camp. They can always get better. I I think that we're going to consistently see multiple running backs in Chicago's backfield. It's going to be DeAndre Swift and and Manunga got hurt in Friday's practice. We know that you already said it. Roshan got hurt. They could add another back. And there's a bunch of running backs that are available. They might make a trade. We've seen Ryan Poles make deals before in season. So, that worries me a little bit more. And last but not least, if I'm drafting a running back who could be RB 24, I don't want to take that guy in round number five. So, he's somebody that I'm interested in, but it's got to be lower than what the ADP says. I think we're reaching a little bit on DeAndre Swift. The only push back to what you said was could be RB24. He's never been worse than RB24. That is the floor and you're drafting Swift closer to his floor than a ceiling. I I'm very curious his role in the passing game. I think that's going to kind of sway where he is and his best year catching the ball was with Ben Johnson when he was the passing game coordinator for the Lions. So, hopefully that's where DeAndre Swift will save you if you are taking him in the fifth round. Let's go to the Jets, which has a lot of a team that has a lot of people panicking because Justin Fields has not looked good. Did not look good against the Giants. Brie is in a rotation now with Brilen Allen and maybe Isaiah Davis. Garrett Wilson's obviously struggling as a result of Justin Fields struggle. So Heath, were you coming out on Justin Fields now who you have as a breakout candidate? I have not lowered Justin Fields based on the preseason at all. And part of that is because my argument for drafting him as high as I am is that in a one quarterback league floor doesn't really matter. There's going to be six quarterbacks on the waiver wire that might score you 20 points in a given week. in most leagues, not all. Know your league if it's different. I am a little bit worried about Garrett Wilson just because Fields can succeed as a starting fantasy quarterback without having good passing numbers. If he's throwing for 200 yards a game, Garrett Wilson's not going to be a very good pick. It was hard for me when we looked at wide receivers to find a bust and I didn't pick Garrett Wilson because on CBS he's around four or five pick. I think that's where he belongs whereas on most sites he's around three pick. Am I panicking if I move Justin Fields outside of my top 12? And I mean just outside of my top 12, it's your rankings. I've moved Drake May ahead of him. I've seen enough from Drake May to be encouraged by him. I know that he doesn't have a receiver like Garrett Wilson, like Justin Fields has, but when I've watched Justin Fields in the preseason and I read all the reports out of Jets camp, I'm reminded of how inferior of a passer he was in Chicago and in Pittsburgh, no one's drafting him for his arm. It's the craziest thing. It's his legs. But what's going to happen when he has games where he doesn't run for a touchdown or he doesn't run for 75 yards and he has a couple of turnovers. And by the way, they have a lot of running backs that they want to get the ball to and they're going to play at a slow pace. There are there there are too many issues for me to overlook on fields compared to other low-end QB1s such as Drake May, such as Jared Goff. I like golf more. I like Dak Prescott more. I like Kyler Murray more. So, I'm going to reach for those guys ahead of Justin Fields, who let's we let's not forget, he does have an injury track record, but I do get where you're coming from as far as the no floor. If you're in a typical 12 team league, maybe 16 quarterbacks get drafted. We talk about it all the time. There are like 20 quarterbacks that we'd be okay starting. So, if you draft Fields, he stinks, you cut him, okay, you move on, you pick somebody else off the waiver wire. So, if it the price is right on Fields, I get it. But for me, that price has to be round 10. Couple of news items before we get to some injuries. Joe Flacco named the Brown starting quarterback. So, we can all celebrate what that means for Jerry Judy, David Njoku, Cedric Tilman, and maybe now Isaiah Bond, who they have officially signed a game. I can't believe we're pumping our fists and saying yes for Joe for 4,700 yards and 32 touchdowns in his last 17 games. It's 2025 and Joe Flacco is still somebody that we're rooting for. Last time he was a quarterback for the Browns, they went to the playoffs. He was the comeback player of the year at the end of the 2023 season. Fox Sports is reporting that Brian Robinson Jr. is on the trade block. There was a report in Jacksonville today that maybe Tank Bsby could be traded. Heath, how much are you monitoring these potential trade rumors, especially the Brian Robinson one because it is coming from a national site. Uh, one of those guys getting traded to the Bears is the only way Dave Jordan being a bust. That would terrify me. Um, and obviously for the other guys on those teams who are monitoring because if they go away, it makes it better for Jaka Crosky Meritt. It makes it better for Travis ETN and Bashel Tutin. But at this point, I think you just expect they're going to be on their teams. And I I think if you're drafting, Robinson can still be a flex option if he's traded, you know, could be traded to Dallas. I don't think they'll trade him in division, but could be situation like Houston if they're worried about Joe Mixon, you know, so just something to keep an eye on there. And you may see a running back for running back trade. Maybe Bree Hall goes to Washington and Robinson goes there to alleviate some headaches that could be dealing with uh that those teams could be dealing with because of some complaining that we're not aware of. We have a Devon Aan situation to worry about. So he thought that trade for I'm gonna come back to you on this one here because he's dealing with a soft tissue injury in his lower body. Mike McDaniel did not say what it was, but you are the high guy on Devon HM by a lot. Probably the highest guy in the industry. Have him as your second running back at least prior to this news. Are you concerned yet about Han and are you moving him down? I I feel a little concerned in the inside. It's not coming out to the rankings yet. this I my general rule of thumb and this will change probably next week as we get even closer to week one but we're still far enough away from actually playing games at this point that I'm going to give it a week. If we're a week from now and he's not practicing and it's still this undetermined soft tissue injury then yeah I'll be lowering him down a little. And what would be the telltale sign if the Dolphins acquire another running back of of of meaning? Not necessarily sign somebody else. I think in their in their case though, just because they lost somebody that they were relying on, it would depend on the level of running back that they're getting. If they go get a Devin Singleary or something like that, if they make a big trade, let's say for a Brian Robinson, when I say big, you know, third round pick, fourth round, that type of thing. That's what I'm saying. Yes. Then it's something like that, that would make me nervous. But until then, I'm with Heath. I'm keeping him where we're where where he is in my running back rankings. Top five type of fantasy running back. Some other injuries that we're keeping an eye on. Matthew Stafford back at practice at least for now on Monday. So hopefully he's going to be fine. Just something to keep an eye on there when you're obviously drafting Puka Nakua and Devonte Adams. You got Justin Jefferson hopeful to practice this week. That'd be great for anybody that's drafting in this coming periods. Next weekend going to be a lot of drafts. So hopefully Jefferson's back and good to go. Kenneth Walker back at practice but dealing with this foot injury. Something that's a little bit nerve-wracking for me. Marshon Lloyd going to miss some time. So good news for Josh Jacobs. Quinton Johnson probably going to be in the concussion protocol. Not officially, but did suffer a concussion in the game against the Rams. And Jaylen McMillan dealing with a neck injury. something to keep an eye on there which could be good for Acha Ibuka especially with Chris Godwin still dealing with his ankle injury. All right, we're going to take a break here on Fantasy Football Today when we come back and get into our sleepers looking at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end guys that are going to be worth taking with late round picks. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by Bet MGM. We're getting into sleepers right now. Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and we're going to involve you. So, we're going to show you our list at each position. And then we did some X polls to have you guys vote on which sleepers you like best, breakouts, etc. But we'll start with the quarterbacks here. And here are the three quarterbacks that we're saying are the players that we're looking for later in drafts. We talked about this about maybe Justin Fields. And you could take one of these other quarterbacks instead of Fields or you can maybe just pass on somebody like Fields and take a Jordan Love who's Heath Sleeper, JJ McCarthy, who's Dave Sleeper, and Trevor Lawrence for me. So Heath, I'll start with you. Jordan Love dealing with the left thumb injury, expected to be fine for week one. Can he be a top 12 guy? Yeah, and this is an injury I'm pretty much ignoring because it's supposed to be healed and it's the left thumb. Um, this is what I love about what we do is last year I hated Jordan Love because he was being drafted as the sixth quarterback overall and now I get to love Jordan Love and I basically have him in the same spot. The Packers had a really strange year. They went super runheavy and Jordan Love didn't run at all because he wasn't healthy. Now he's hopefully healthy by the time we get to week one. He has a true number one wide receiver in Matthew Golden and I expect him to give us a top 12 season. I just hope he stays healthy because that knee injury week one, the groin injury mid-season, he didn't run and he was a much better running quarterback in 2023 which helped pad his t stats. One rushing touchdown last year, four rushing touchdowns the year before. You mentioned there's 20 quarterbacks that you would feel comfortable starting. Is JJ McCarthy one of them? You would you would go into week one with JJ McCarthy as your only quarterback? I would. And even though I don't love the matchup, if it came to that, maybe it's a really deep league, like an 18 team league, something like that, then sure, I'd be okay with JJ McCarthy. And a lot of it has to do with how he's been practicing this summer. He was up and down. But he just recently had a joint practice against the Patriots, and by the time that practice was over, he had built up some confidence. He was lighting up the Patriots defense. He looks like somebody who could be really, really good. And think about the quarterbacks who have done well with Kevin Oonnell over the last three seasons. Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins in just more than half of the games that Okonnell has coached those quarterbacks, 22 or more fantasy points. And I think that that's a number that JJ McCarthy could reach. He runs a little bit, too. And he's got a great receiving core, especially once Jordan Addison comes back in week four. I don't know if I'd want to start McCarthy, but I definitely want to roster McCarthy just to see what develops. So, uh, good call there with especially somebody you can get for free on draft day. I'm going to go Trevor Lawrence. I like what I see so far in the preseason. Liam Cohen, I think it's going to be fantastic for him. And speaking of rushing, two seasons on his resume with over 330 rushing yards. We saw last year Baker Mayfield saw a spike in his rushing. I think Lawrence with his legs will make some plays. But obviously what we're counting on with Lawrence is Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. And if he can get those guys going, stay healthy himself, we may get the year that you've been waiting for for Trevor Lawrence, which I know you've been very anti- Trevor Lawrence, but this could be one of those seasons where everything sort of clicks for him. And again, the preseason looks pretty good so far. So let's see which guys you like the best. So the way that I framed the question is which sleeper do you like the best? and they like Jordan Love the best, followed by McCarthy, followed by Lawrence. I thought Lawrence would be second. Love would be first, but JJ McCarthy certainly getting a lot of love. Maybe a lot of Vikings fans voting Thomas Schaefer pushing it in that direction. So JJ McCarthy number two guy there, but Jordan Love being drafted first and being uh selected first here based on the X pole. Let's look at the running backs here. We got Tyrone Tracy as a sleeper for you. Tank Bsby as a sleeper for you, and Brilen Allen is somebody for me. So Dave Tracy, he's almost putting himself in a breakout category range as opposed to sleeper category range. You're not getting him as late as some of these other running backs, but you like the outlook for him as a Giants guy. Absolutely. And and I think he is going to be the Giants running back to begin the season. And I remember how he ended last season and the talent was good. Unfortunately, the fumbles were bad. If he can stop that from happening, could you fumble a little bit less, Tyrone? If he does that, he could end up having that job for the whole season. We know he's a good pass catcher. And this Giants offense is starting to put some things together. The improvement at quarterback, especially in their preseason games without Malik Neighbors on the field, it actually looks passable. So, I think that there's a chance that Tyrone Tracy could end up being one of these running backs that finishes top 24 this year and you're drafting him in round seven or eight. Got the yo-yo of the Jaguars running backs. It's Bigsby one week, it's ETN one week, it's Basil Tutin getting some love. BSBY is the guy though. Is that the one you're targeting first or is that the one that you're settling on based on ADP? Because ETN's still going first. BSBY right now going second and he was the one that was the starter in second preseason game. Full PPR I would still take ETN first. Half PPR I'd probably take Bigsby. Naan, I would definitely take BSBY. I it has been kind of confusing how they've used them in the preseason. My expectations have remained pretty similar that Travis ETN's going to be the guy that has a chance to catch 50 plus passes. Tank Bsby is going to be the guy who is the primary rushing back and Bashel Tutin is their third running back and if somebody gets hurt, he's going to get a great opportunity. So, I still think both ETN and Bsby are actually good values at their current ADP right now. And if you're telling me Hanks BBY's on the trade block and he ends up on the Dallas Cowboys, that'd be even better. That ADP, by the way, is a hundth or later in drafts. His ADP will skyrocket if he goes to become a guaranteed starter anywhere else. And he did look good in the passing game, which I think a lot of people have questions on. For me, I I like Bsby the best right now, but I would settle for Toutin just because I think Tutin is going to at some point in the mid-season, middle of the season, have an opportunity to sort of maybe prove himself to be the best guy there. Remember, this is the guy the regime brought in as opposed to the other two guys in terms of ETN and Bsby that he inherited. I'm going to go Brillin Allen as my favorite sleeper maybe at any position just because I'm scared of Bree Hall. The running back schedule is great for the Jets and Hall right now struggling. Allen looking fantastic. He's the bigger physical guy. We talked about this on our podcast that he could be the one working at the goal line. I just don't like what I see from Bree Hall right now and what I'm hearing about Bruce Hall right now and obviously everybody's sort of falling in love with Brandon Allen. Another guy I think we're going to see his ADP skyrocket. So, where will you draft him? I'm drafting him in like the round seven, round eight range. Wow. And his ADP is late round 12. Yeah. I I don't think it's going to stay there, you know, once we start to get to a lot of drafts and obviously when they start to see stupid rankings like mine, but I think Brilen Allen's in a great spot. So, the three guys that I sort of put in a similar category, Jordan Mason, Zack Charbanet, Brilen Allen, I think they're all going to be significant contributors in their backfield right away and an injury occurs, we could see them as the featured guy there. Lottery ticket certainly for sure. Let's see what the uh X poll shows us. So, 37% in favor of Allen, slightly head of Tracy, slightly bigby. I think we can all look at these guys and say we want them on our fantasy rosters. And probably the same thing with the receivers here. So Dave, you're going with a Mecca Ibuka, who also could be a guy graduating to breakout status pretty soon. Yeah. Uh I got a feeling that the fans are gonna like IA. Uh Luther Burton for you. Sticking with your Bears love. Um uh going with DeAndre Swift as a breakout running back. Luther Burden as a sleeper wide receiver. And I'm going to go Keon Coleman who at this point is my favorite Bills wide receiver. So Dave Ibuka is just flying up ADP, flying up rank list like Dave Sleepers might be gone by round six, right? I know it's a problem. Well, what's his ADP right now? It's 108. And it's already gone up 16 spots since. So, even if he goes up another 16 spots, we're talking around 85th overall. That's round eight. And I think that's a good time to take a careful math. What? It is. How bad is the math? Whatever. I'm I like IA. I've actually seen all three of these wide receivers practice this off seasonason, and I think I going to line up wide. I think he's going to play a lot. I'm even starting to get less and less worried about what's going to happen with Chris Godwin comes back. I don't think it's going to be a a factor. I think Evans is going to be the number one. I think I is going to be the number two. I've totally bought in. I think he's going to be outstanding. In regards to Burden, he's not playing with the starters right now. We saw Zakias as the slot receiver, which he might not be getting enough attention if he's going to have that role at some point. There was uh the the story told on the game broadcast last night. Greg Olsson sort of revealed a conversation with Brian Poles that polls told him or told them that Burton might be better than DJ Moore and Roma Dunes sooner rather than later, right? Do you care about where Burden's lining up right now or he just easy target late in drafts? No. And I think it's I do I love that he's still playing with the second teams. It's the only reason we can still find him in round 12 or 13 and not where I going in round seven or eight. I think that we've seen so many times from these talented first or second round wide receivers that it's a slow start to the beginning of the year, maybe not even playing a full complement of snaps and then they're league winners in the second half. And that's exactly what Burden could be. We'll talk about it more in just a minute, but I want a guy that Ben Johnson went and prioritized in his first draft. You just got to be patient with him. Don't go don't go dropping him for Payton Barber in week four or something. I I hope Burton does well because just easy easy easy target and you and he looks the part. He really does. Just you see him. He's going to be the slot receiver and I think that's going to be fantastic for him. Keon Coleman right now is my favorite Bills receiver. I know we all like Khalil Shakir but he's dealing with a high ankle sprain. I think I'm I keep saying this. I go back to last year. He had those two games before the wrist injury. Coleman looked like things were starting to click for him. This Bills receiving core is so incomplete right now. I think Shakir is a good two or maybe three. I know they like Josh Palmer. I know Dalton Concade's got an opportunity here. Coleman could easily be their alpha and he's making a lot of plays in camp and hopefully Josh Allen continues looking. I think it's going to be touchdowns that makes him a great fantasy option if he can get there. But right now, a good third or fourth receiver you can target around pick 100. He keeps just moving up in my rankings. I like the setup for him though, especially as long as Shakir is out. Let's show you what the X poll looks like here. No surprise that I is the favorite. Again, the way I framed it sort of puts it in that regard. So, I running away with this poll. 73.3% ahead of Keon Coleman and ahead of Luther Bird. Now, let's get to the tight ends and the sleepers that we're looking at here. And Heath, your Bears love continues. Coloulston Love's the sleeper for you. Zack Z, Dave for you, and Daltton Conc for me. So, I'm the Bills guy, you're the Bears guy. Uh, you mentioned it because Ben Johnson goes out and gets this guy. When in the world have we ever gotten to draft a top 10 skill position player in the double-digit rounds in their first year, especially when everybody loves like everybody loves this offense and what Ben Johnson might do for him. This is an absolute gift to get Colston Loand after the top 100 picks and you can often get him after the top 120. Do you feel like if you draft him though, you have to draft a second tight end? I would prefer to draft a second tight end, but there's pl you can go draft Zach too. The other thing you could do if it's a smaller league, you can probably find a tight end like Z or Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goddard on the waiverwire. So if Lovelin just doesn't strike in the first couple weeks, you put him on the bench, you find another tight end off the waiver wire. Zack Z was great last year. How much is this tied to Terry McLaren though that maybe Mcccluren doesn't show up early in the season or doesn't perform early in the season and Z just continues to be a go-to guy for J? I I think Z is going to continue to get targets. He's 34 years old, so he's only three years removed from his 28-year-old season. How was my math there, Heath? That's terrible. I did that on purpose. I think he's going to be a good short area target and red zone guy for the Commanders. I think defenses are going to pay a lot of attention to McLaren when he comes back and Debo Samuel as well. It's going to open things up for maybe a little more touchdown dependent than I'd like to admit. But if he's getting four or five catches per game, 56 yards on top of it, that's a good low-end tight end in fantasy. And an easy guy to pair, as you said, with Colston Love and maybe even Daltton Concaid as well. Just like the setup for him. And as I said, this Bill's receiving court is it just feels like it's the same thing like last year, wide open, except we were drafting Concade similarly Jordan Love point. You know, you were drafting Concaid as a top fiveish tight end last year. I know I overhyped him and, you know, didn't come through. I think the injuries were a big part of it though. Forget about how he finished. You know, just his playing time and everything how it sort of developed. Two separate knee injuries, played through both of them. Obviously was not uh at the level I think that the Bills were hoping for and certainly what fantasy managers are hoping for. And now you're getting him with a late round pick. So you can take a guy like Lovelin, a guy like Concade. I probably wouldn't pair those two guys together, but somebody like Z and some of the other guys you mentioned, a Jake Ferguson, a uh a Dallas, you know, some of the veteran guys. So you can see what everybody looks like looks at this on X. And I think Z, you know, it's funny because like he's probably going to be the safest by far. Um maybe not the same upside as those guys, but when he plays the Eagles those two games, he's going to go off like we saw last year. So uh Lovelin though taking advantage of uh the hype maybe of what it could be or maybe just Jacob Gibbs voting over and over and over again to make this poll look like it is. All right, we're going to take a break right now. come back going and get into the breakout options. Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end. Dave is going to give you breakouts that are in round one based on how his sleepers went. I think I do have one that's going to be like a top 30 pick and he is going to tell you about one that he likes that's a borderline round one guy as a breakout as well. That's next here on FFT. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by Bet MGM. Dave can't count. I don't know what team players are on. We're all over the place here. Uh let's get to some breakout quarterbacks here as we take good idea. Take a look at guys who I may think are still on the wrong teams. Uh you got Bo Knicks, Dave, as a breakout candidate, Heath. You got Justin Fields. I have Drake May. Bo Knicks came on really strong end of last season. The Broncos offense looked great in their second preseason game without him. Some weapons developing. Troy Franklin for example. How good can Bon Knicks be? I think he can be really good. We know that he can do some things as a rusher and I know that the Broncos have added some good running backs to their backfield and that could take away some opportunities for Bon Knicks, but I still think he can contribute on the ground. It's what he can contribute through the air and I think he'll be better there this year than he was last year. In his last 13 games, he averaged over 25 fantasy points per game in six-point per passing touchdown leagues. That's exciting. that would have made him fifth best last year. Overall, he was barely in the top 10. So, I think he can take that step forward and be a good fantasy starting quarterback in 2025. You said you're not budging off of Justin Fields despite the struggles in the preseason and the training camp reports. And so, just reiterate the upside versus the downside. Yeah. Well, I'll just talk about the passing for a second because every year he's been in the career in in the NFL, his completion percentage has gotten better, his interception rates gotten better, his passer ratings gotten better. The last three years, the sack rates gotten better. I care more about that than I do about what he looks like in training camp practices and a couple preseason games. I will say this, got off to a slow start with the Steelers in the first two games last year. Last four that he started over 24 fantasy points per game were his average, which would have put him in the top five conversation. So, let's see if he can sort of write the ship a little bit once we get to week one. For me, I'm going with Drake May. Just like him all off season, continued to move him up. He's a top 12 quarterback. last year. His 10 healthy games, if he would have taken those, uh, projected stats, he would have been third in terms of rushing yards, which is obviously something that we like, would have been 630 rushing yards for him. So, uh, an easy guy to target late if he continues to look like this as a passer, connecting with Stfan Digs, Kyle Williams, Dear Douglas, M. Collins, the group that they have there, I just think he's going to be a good secondyear quarterback, take a big leap. Let's see what the voters decided here. So, slight edge for Drake May over Bo Knicks, which a little bit surprised, but I think a lot of fantasy managers getting excited about Drake May. Obviously, Justin Fields not as excited, but still Fields might have the most upside of this trio based on what he could do with his rushing potential. Let's look at the running backs here. DeAndre Swift for you, Heath. We touched on that at the start of the show. Bucky Irving for you, Dave. And I'm going with another Patriot guy. I guess I'm an AFC East guy with the Bills sleepers and the Patriots breakouts here. But DeAndre Swift again, just you like the setup for him with Ben Johnson. Absolutely love it. Offensive line will be better. The rushing will be more efficient. Very little competition for touches. will be a two back field, but he's the main guy and he's had shown huge receiving upside with Ben Johnson in the past. So Dave, Bucky Irving, excuse me, Bon Knicks, solid rookie season picked up as the second half took off. Bucky Irving, same thing. Exact same thing. And that's why when you look at his fantasy point per game total from last year, it's at 14.4. And you say, wait a minute, did wasn't he awesome? And he was, but the first half of the year, he really wasn't getting that opportunity. Now it's about what he can do over a 17game slate. And if he does how he finished last year, he's gonna be awesome. But last year when he was taking off, he was playing under 60% of the snaps in most of his games for Tampa. I think he can get a little bit more work on his plate. We know what he can do as a pass catcher out of the back field. And that offensive line's only going to get a little bit stronger once Tristan Worfs comes back at left tackle. I think this offense is about to take off. I want the running back in it. Bucky Irving is going to score a ton of touches. How much does Rashad White's injury right now play into him getting better or maybe just staying the same? I I think it actually makes him better because I think in a world where Rashad White isn't available to Tampa, you're going to see Bucky Irving playing more on passing downs. I think they'll give him that role over Shawn Tucker. Shawn Tucker might take a few carries away from from Bucky in that regard. But I still want the running back that's going to catch a lot of passes, be more explosive, work at the goal line. I think that's going to end up being Bucky Irving this year. Hopefully that's the case. Then uh you know the Bucks have sort of indicated that they may want to save him for the end of the season but if there's no Rashad White at the beginning of the season then based on Shawn Tucker's performances could be great for Bucky Irving at the start but it's clearly going to be a big part of their offensive plan. Same thing for Trevian Henderson. Clearly a guy that's getting a lot of hype. Maybe a little out of control hype but we'll see what he does in tandem with Raandre Stevenson or Antonio Gibson or it'll just be the Trevon Henderson show. Another touchdown he scored in the second preseason game. He's going to be electric. I have him in the third round at this point. I'm just not holding back at this point. Draft Trayvon Henderson and draft him with confidence. He could be awesome. I think he's going to be this year's Jir Gibbs. Just somebody that may take a little bit of time to establish himself as a lead guy in his backfield, but once he does get that opportunity is going to be awesome. Heath, not a lot of love for your guy there with DeAndre Swift. Understandably so when he's compared to these other two guys though with Bucky Irving and Trevian Henderson. So close in the poll there between Irving and Henderson. Let's go to the wide receivers here. Dave, you got George Pickkins with his move from Pittsburgh to Dallas as a breakout candidate. Heath, you're going with Xavier Worthy with the potential suspension looming for Rashi Rice and I got Ricky Pierall as a breakout candidate with the injuries in San Francisco. So Dave, George Pickkins, are we headed for a career year for him? I think we are. And it's not going to take that much about 1,200 yards and certainly seven eight touchdowns. And I just I think about this Dallas offense. Big questions about the running game, huge questions about the defense. What do they have that's good? It's the passing game. And I think George Pickkins, if if teams are going to have to make a decision about who they're going to double between CD Lamb and George Pickkins. And I think the decision's pretty easy, it's going to be CD Lamb. That's going to open up George Pickkins. We've seen him a ton in single coverage. Make some huge plays down the sideline. An awesome contested catch machine. Rave reviews for him out of training camp as well. Love him as a high-end number three wide receiver. How much does Rice's suspension looming factor into Worthy's breakout potential? I not I don't think it factors into the potential. It factors into the certainty. If Rashi Rice misses the second half of the season, Xavier Worth is going to be a top 15 wide receiver and maybe a top 10 wide receiver in the second half of the season. If Rashi Rice stays healthy, then we're going to have a bit of a battle between which one has the true breakout. And I think Rice will have more targets, but were these targets might be worth more points because they're going down the field. What he did in the last five or six games of the regular season and in the playoffs, that looks like a rookie wide receiver, like we talked about with Monro St. Brown like we talked about with a lot of other rookies that that usually carries over to year two and unless Rushy Rice comes in and steals all the targets. That number, by the way, in those last six games for Worthy, 21.6 PPR points per game. That would be insane. Just for anybody catching up, Rice is going to be eligible to play the first four games of the season. Then there may be a suspension after he has the hearing on September 30th. So, like you said, the second half of the season, if Rice is missing, maybe six games, maybe eight games, we just don't know. Could be four games. then worthy has that opportunity to really accelerate and get to that point to where you were talking about over 21 PPR points per game. Ricky Pearaw will hopefully get off to a good start because the 49ers dealing with Brandon Iayuk out for the likely part of the season coming back from the knee injury and we don't know what's going on with Jawan Jennings with his calf potentially contract situation tied into that. Pierall looked great in the second preseason game for the 49ers and hopefully will continue to lead this team in targets or at least the wide receivers in targets when everybody's healthy. But looking like a secondyear breakout. Three games last year with at least six targets. Had 17 or more PPR points in all three of those games. Two of them coming in the final two games of the season. So we got the poll here. Pierall over Pickkins, which is a surprise. Both those guys over Worthy. Probably a surprise, but it's a bad job by the people voting. Yeah, I I I almost think it should be like flipped the other way around and Worthy would have been the guy that they voted for. I love all three of these receivers, actually. All right, we got three breakout tight end candidates here. One broke out as a rookie and Brock Bowers. You got a rookie that could break out this year in Tyler Warren and Tucker Craft. A lot of people push back on why his Bower is a breakout. Explain why. Because I'm drafting with the one-two term, which means I don't think the 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game last year is what he's going to do. He got one of the biggest quarterback upgrades in the NFL. Going from Gardenner Menchu, sorry, and Aiden Oonnell to Gino Smith. He got an offensive coordinator upgrade as well. He only had a 3% touchdown rate. We talk about Trey McBride's coming touchdown regression. There's a there's a chance that Brock Bowers has a 10 touchdown season and you're wishing that you had drafted him in round one. Tyler Warren going to be this year's Brock Bowers? I think he won't be quite as good as Brock Bowers. It's very rare for a tight end to be as good as Bowers was last year, but I think he can get close to that. I think that he's absolutely what the Colts wanted as far as a middle of the field weapon, a safety ball for whichever quarterback that they start, and someone who can make plays after the catch. And we saw it in both preseason games. There were a number of times where the defenders needed multiple guys to take him down or off the field. He also was catching downfield passes. I think he's outstanding. Absolutely targeting him. I'm gonna have to take him in like late round eight, early round nine now to get him on all my teams. But I'm going to do it. I think he's going to be really good. And Josh Downs dealing with a hamstring injury which could obviously open the door for even more opportunities for Tyler Warren. I'm going to go Tucker Craft. I just think everything Matt Laflur said this off seasonason has a chance to come to fruition. You said they finally have a number one receiver in Matthew Golden. I don't know where the number two is at this point because Jaden Reed foot injury, Romeo Dobs doing a little bit of a back injury, it could easily be Tucker Craft and you've talked about this a lot. His efficiency is George KD like if he gets more targets and we think they'll throw the ball a little bit closer to 2023 than they were 2024 when they were third worst in pass attempts. So more opportunities for Craft could be a red zone threat as well. A safe number a safe top 10 tight end with maybe top five upside. He can creep in behind the top three guys of Bowowers, Trey McBride, and George KD. No surprise here again based on the way that I phrased this. Which breakout tight end do you like the best? Brock Bowers is 53%. I thought this would be like 80 or 90% to be honest with you, but again I think people just pushing back on can he break out again, but he as he explained expects him to be even better in 2025. All right, we're going to take a break right now. We come back and get into the bus, the players that you might want to avoid. That's next on FFT. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by Bet MGM. We're looking at bus players you might want to avoid. And a lot of this has to do with average draft position. So you're going to hear some names that we're probably still going to draft if they fall to the right spot. But at the cost that they're costing us right now, we're probably going to avoid them. And looking at the quarterbacks, Dave, that's kind of where you're going. So you have it just a blanket statement. Any quarterback drafted in the first two rounds. And right now that means Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, right? Which is weird to say. Lamar Jackson's a bus and Josh Allen's a bust, but it's all because of ADP. Of course, I want these guys on my fantasy team. I just don't want to take them over some of the other round two picks that we've seen in fantasy drafts. You've seen guys like Devon Achan is starting to fall into round two because of the uncertainty about his injury. Ashton Genty is kind of in that range. We know other receivers, Brian Thomas Jr., AJ Brown, they're in that range. And I would rather go after those positions rather than the quarterback spot because I know I can find a quarterback later on in the draft that's going to give me good value. Now, if it's round three, I'm all over those guys. Would love to have them, but round two too soon. So, he says he loves the Tampa Bay offense. You're concerned about Baker Mayfield, though. Again, is it more just cost or is it more Baker's performance? It's mostly cost. um he's going in round five like way much really closer to Lamar and Josh Allen than some quarterbacks that I think might score similarly to him like some of the sleepers that we gave earlier. The other thing is I was kind of starting to get nervous about this with the way Mecha Ibuka's kind of come into his own this summer, but he's not going to have Chris Godwin probably for the first weeks, four weeks of the season and then who knows what version that is. Jaylen McMillan's now banged up. So, I don't know that he has the super elite wide receiving core to lift him up out of what would be touchdown regression for anybody else. You mentioned super elite receiving core. That was kind of the hope for Patrick Mahomes. And now we have this Rashi Rice suspension looming and another guy that's getting pushed up to a range where I'm just not so comfortable with it in round four at this point. Now we all agree on the top five quarterbacks. Whatever order you have them in, it's Lamar, Allen, Daniels, Burrow, Herz, and then it's kind of Mahomes kind of just sitting there as the sixth quarterback, but there should be some separation between those top five guys and Mahomes. And maybe even round five is too soon. The early side would take him as round six. So, I think Mahomes has a chance to be better than the sub 21 points per game that he's given us the last two years, but I hope it's with a full season of Rashi Rice or close to it, which we don't, you know, fully expect, but as much as Rice as he can get, and then the potential of worthy and hopefully a bounceback season for Kelsey. But, uh, the bust that you're most worried about at quarterback right now is Mahomes based on our poll. Let's go to the running backs here. We already touched on DeAndre Swift who's a little bit nervous, a a guy who's nervous for Dave. Yeah. Uh, Alvin Kamar, you guys, I think, disagree on this. Did we ever settle on our bet of who's uh who's going to be better? It was half PPR, right? Half PPR. Yeah, I've got Chimera. He's got Swift. All right. We'll we'll figure that on our podcast here. So, why is Chimera a bust for you? Well, I'll say I got pretty good odds on that bet because these guys are being drafted no nowhere close to each other. I guess maybe maybe Dave did, but he's currently going in round three as a 30-year-old running back who has missed time each of the last three seasons. And I think Kell Moore is going to be a good coach. But when you see what he's done going to inherit Austin Heckler, inherit Ezekiel Elliott, inherit Saquon Barkley, those three backs saw a 36% decrease in their receptions per game in their first year with Kell Moore. He just does not throw the ball to the running backs at the rate that Chimera has been used to. So, I'm worried about just about everything with Alvin Chimera, including the decreased efficiency we've seen over the second half of his career. And the quarterbacks are a little concerning right now, too. The offensive line in the league. Yeah, it it could be just a bad offensive environment, but obviously if he's going to catch the ball and the one thing about Chimera last year, he played four games with Spencer Rattler did average did score at least over 17 PPR points in three of them. So hopefully that will save him, but round three might be a little bit too rich. You said DeAndre Swift makes you nervous just because the offensive line concerns there. And and Swift himself 13.7 PPR points per game or lower each of the last three years. Taking that in round five seems like too too much of a reach. Yep. And Bree Hall going in round three right now. Now again, you're hearing just a lot of positive reports about Brilland Allen. Some negativity about Bree Hall. We saw it in the first two preseason games coming off the field in some key spots. He feels like he could be a trapback if he's not going to catch the ball to the level that we've seen the last couple of years. He's been over 50 receptions each last two seasons. So, I'm just nervous about Bruce Hall. I'll take him around five. He just doesn't fall to that range. And Bree Hall is leading the poll here. Which bust running back worries you the most by comparison to Alvin Chimera and DeAndre Swift? So, people like Swift in this poll, don't love him in the breakout poll. So, maybe just with the other guys he was associated with. All right, let's talk about the bus wide receivers here. Dave, you got Zay Flowers as a bust. He got Marvin Harrison Jr. for me, Terry McLaren. I'll just get McLaren out of the way. I'm nervous about the hold in. Even if he does sign at this point, he's not going to crack the top 24 for me. So, I'm going to keep McLaren outside the top 24. He's still being drafted in round four. So, I will most likely not be drafting Terry McLaren. Why is Zay Flowers a bust? The track record of Ravens wide receivers under Lamar Jackson isn't very good. And I love the talent of Z Flowers. I don't think he gets enough targets and I don't think he gets enough touchdowns to warrant being drafted even in the first seven rounds in fantasy. I'd be fine with Marvin Harrison if he was being drafted in the same place that Z Flowers is, but he's being pushed up ahead of both of these guys now in drafts. And I just haven't seen or heard anything out of Arizona that suggests their game plan has changed. You hear about their joint practices and it's still Marvin Harrison running the defense down the field and Trey McBride catching 15 passes and that seems to be what the offense still is. He will be a good best ball wide receiver. Has some spike weeks, but he's not going to meet his ADP. Yeah, did score eight touchdowns last year. If he pushes that number to 10, that will clearly help. Can he get more opportunities, more targets? Can he catch the ball a little bit more and makes more plays? We know about him bulking up physically and and maybe that helps with some yards after. He needs a quarterback to be on target. He needs a quarterback to be on target. It's a great point. All right, this is the closest poll I think we've had so far today. So, you have Zay Flowers, McLaren, and Marvin Harrison. and Harrison just ekking out McLaren in terms of the wide receiver that worries you the most. Let's see if maybe the tight end poll can beat that. We have Sam Leaporta as a bust for you, Heath. We have TJ Hoginson as a bus for you and Mark Andrews is a bus for me. So, this is the range of tight ends which kind of sways how a lot of these players value players manner at the position because we know the top three guys typically the great guys perform at a very high level barring injury. The bottom tight ends, the Zackes, the Coloulston Loveins, those type of guys, they have a chance to break out. It's these guys that are drafted in the rounds four through six range, which is where these guys are going, tend to sway the position. So, Leaporta banged up right now. You're worried, you're worried about Detroit in general. You've kind of made that clear, but I'm a little cooler. Like, I'm I think I'm pretty close to the where Jameson Williams is being drafted, but I just think the emergence of Jameson Williams. And when you compare, I would take TJ Hawinson over Leaporter right now. When you compare those two guys, Hawinson's so much better in terms of earning targets and receptions and yards, and Leaporta has been better at scoring touchdowns. I'm worried about the Lions touchdowns coming down a little bit. And with that, that's an out three games. Hawinson's might go up a little bit. So that's kind of where I'm at on those guys. I would take Leapora over Hawinson, but I don't want to take either of them at their current ADPs. Leaporta is at the 56 turn. Hawinson is just before round seven starts. I think Hawinson's going to be third, maybe fourth on the team in targets. I'm not sure how big of a red zone threat he's going to be at tight end. This to me sounds like somebody who should be drafted in like round eight or round nine, not in round six, seven. It will be interesting to see how Hawinson does those first three games without Addison there and then does that sort of buoy him to the rest of the season. 2023 he was in the conversation to be the number one tight end, but that was with a more established quarterback. And we'll see how Jefferson's hamstring two healthy knees uh sort of factors in that as well. Andrews last year was great at finding the end zone, led the position in terms of touchdowns, but the two previous years he combined for 11 touchdowns, scored 11 touchdowns last year. We don't know when Isaiah likely will return, so likely he's out a significant amount of time. It might justify Andrews going in round seven, but at this point that's a little bit too expensive for me. I'm a little concerned again with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Will the touchdowns be there? And I'm surprised that he's winning this poll, but Mark Andrews as the tight end that worries you the most. How about Hawinson being the one that worries them the least? Well, I think people and that's probably what driving is driving up his ADP. Addison out three games is going to I think help Hawinson situation and Leaporta is, you know, banged up right now, too. I think the knock against Hawinson might be that he doesn't have the upside. Like he's still everybody expects him to get seven targets a game. He he's about as solid as a he's like the younger Zack Z in a little a little bit better situation. M I don't think he's getting seven targets per game once Addison's back. We'll see. Kevin Oonnell loves him, so we'll see how much Hawinson does matter and can maybe another bet happens between Leaporta and Hawin. I'd be in for this season. All right. Well, we'll get to those on our Fantasy Football Today podcast. All right, we're going to take a break. When we come back, it's all your questions the rest of the way. Ask FFT next here on Fantasy Football Today. Wrapping things up here on Fantasy Football Today presented by Bet MGM. We got our Ask FFT. And the first one is starting up a new league. What are some unwritten rules, Heath, that need to be made clear? Uh the first one is don't have any unwritten rules. Write it down in the rules so everybody knows what the rules are so you don't have arguments in the middle of the season. The second one I would say is the only way a trade is getting reversed is if it's collusion. And if you have collusion, those people should be kicked out of your league. All right, so there are some good ones uh to follow. Uh Dave, if Bowowers and McBride were drafted as wide receivers, where would they rank among wide receivers? It's going to be format dependent. If it's full PPR, it's it's right about where I would take them. Maybe a little bit later. So let's call it round three just for those two. But in nonPR, it's only Bowers that I would take in round three. McBride would probably fall a full round later. So you're essentially saying they would be like wide receiver 11 12 in that range. In that range and full PPR, yes, I would agree. Maybe a little maybe a little bit past that. Uh, which quarterback would you keep in a one QB dynasty league? Keith, JJ McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott to a tongue. That is a tough one. I have all those guys very close. I would probably keep Dak Prescott. Okay. I would probably go Lawrence just for the longevity potential, but Prescott for the one-year longevity. Yep. I have the third pick in a 10 team reddraft league. Dave, who do I select? Bjon Robinson or Jir G. Easy one for me. Bjan Robinson is my number one running back. I would agree. Next question. Uh, keeper question. 12 team PPR one flex. Keep Justin Jefferson at six, Devon Han at 19, Jaylen Wall at 30, or DeAndre Swift at 54, Heath, testing your love for a lot of these guys. It's It's all my favorite guys. I'm going to go with Han right now. If we had a week from now and he's still hurt, then maybe you can try to change your mind. Yeah, not a lot of value with Jefferson at six, but Han and 19 could be great. That's a good All right, last question for today. We got a 10 team two quarterback lead Dave. Uh, first pick. Am I back and back and forth on Lamar versus Chase? So, you taking a quarterback, you taking wide receiver? Yeah, I'm taking the quarterback. I know it's a 10 team league, but to get one of the stud quarterbacks, even in a two quarterback league, it's absolutely worth it. Yeah, I would take uh I mean, I would take Allen over the Yeah, I would take Lamar Jackson. You would take Jaden Daniels, right? Yeah. Yep. So, we're all different, but we all agree. Take the quarterback over Jamar Chase. All right, that'll do it for us here on Fantasy Football Today. We're back here on CBS Sports Network on Friday. You can always check us out on our Fantasy Football Today podcast where we help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Drafts are coming up. You don't want to miss out. Check out the Fantasy Football Today podcast for Heath, for Dave. I'm Jamie. Thanks for watching. [Music]